The US election continues to hot up as the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris is set to conclude next week when voters go to the polls on Tuesday 5th November.

The contest looks extremely close, with polls currently reflecting a 49% to 48% lead for Harris, but bookmakers making Trump favourite. However, the result could have a significant impact on US imports from China and global trade in general.

Earlier in the campaign, Trump claimed that he would impose a 60% increase in tariffs from China, which would undoubtedly have far reaching effects on the Red Dragon’s gigantic export market. The United States are by far the biggest commercial partner for China, where US trade is valued at more than double that of any other country.

If trade, and therefore ocean freight volume, was to drop significantly between the two countries, which could follow Chinese New Year if Trump wins and takes up office in January, then overcapacity could spread worldwide.

Of course, if elected, a Trump administration may not carry through with these threats and there have been some inconsistencies, as the former president has also floated the idea of a 10% and a 20% increase on tariffs from all worldwide countries. However, Chinese exporters may well be holding their breath over next week’s election result.