Industry analysts are cautioning that shipping lines may be forced into a round of last-minute capacity cuts on Asia trades as China’s Golden Week holiday approaches.

The annual break, running from October 1–7, is traditionally marked by widespread blanked sailings. However, so far this year, the number of confirmed cancellations is well below what has been seen in previous years.

Current schedules suggest that the Asia–Europe trade is carrying significantly more capacity than during past Golden Week periods. With only five weeks remaining, market watchers believe further blankings will soon be announced to head off further overcapacity.

Weak demand on the transpacific is also weighing on carriers, as capacity has switched to Asia-Europe and may have contributed to a muted peak season. Carriers seemingly have left little room to maneuver, relying heavily on sailing cancellations as their primary method of maintaining or increasing freight rates.

According to a recent market assessment, carriers would need to cancel 21 additional sailings to match the capacity management measures seen during last year’s Golden Week. Without such action, freight rates could come under renewed pressure as the industry moves into the slower off-season.

Unique Forwarding will continue tracking developments closely and share updates on any significant changes in carrier strategies ahead of the holiday.