New penalties from the US Trade Representative (USTR) targeting Chinese-built ships will come into force from October 14th, though uncertainty lingers over whether shippers will feel the impact.

The measures impose a $50 per net ton fee on Chinese carriers registered in China or Hong Kong, while vessels built in China will instead face a $120 per teu levy. If a Chinese-owned carrier operates a Chinese-built vessel, only the larger charge applies.

With implementation of these costs imminent, questions remain over whether carriers will pass on costs. The Gemini Cooperation seemed to rule out surcharges when Hapag-Lloyd confirmed that most of the alliance’s tonnage was built in South Korea. We assume the same applies for Maersk Line.

The Premier Alliance, meanwhile, has reshuffled services to keep Chinese-built vessels away from US calls, suggesting HMM, ONE and Yang Ming may also be unlikely to introduce surcharges.

Within the Ocean Alliance, CMA CGM has said it will not impose a surcharge for now, though its partners Cosco and OOCL – both Chinese carriers – are more directly exposed. Analysts estimate they could face up to $2.1bn in additional costs next year due to USTR fees, though there may be the possibility of offsetting most of that if other alliance partners can handle more of the US port coverage.

MSC, the world’s largest carrier, has yet to declare its position.

For shippers, the fallout may be softer than feared when the penalties were officially unveiled in April. Chinese shipyards, however, are already reeling: their share of global ship orders dropped from 72% to 52% in the first half of 2025.